Pneumonia is ongoing and has become the starting point for the economic impact of this year. With the outbreak of pneumonia, offline consumption was directly impacted, investment became more prudent under the market risk aversion, import and export were affected by trade friction and epidemic, and the troika driving economic development was fully affected. How does the New Guanyan Pneumonia epidemic affect the Chinese economy, which industries are the most affected, and which industries obtain rapid development opportunities. The expert team organized by the Qingyan Think Tank systematically sorted out for you.
1、 Five Shock Waves of Xinguan Epidemic Influencing Industry Development
1、 Separation of manpower and capital, causing short-term production interruption
Pneumonia of Sichuan Xinguan Gas Field Co., Ltd. is transmitted through contact with air entrainment and aerosol, and the incubation period may be infectious. Policies and requirements are issued in all regions, except for necessary industries, to flexibly arrange the return time. In order to avoid the epidemic risk, a large number of labor-intensive enterprises choose to delay the commencement of work, and the structural imbalance of production supply occurs.
2、 Regional isolation, resulting in loss of economic efficiency.
Compared with SARS, Xinguan has stronger transmission capacity, making the cost of prevention and control increase geometrically. Some regions in China have adopted the policies of closing cities, roads and villages. The regional isolation blocks the commodity exchange between cities, closes the original low-cost channels, causes the industrial chain and channel rupture, and greatly reduces the economic efficiency.
3、 Residents stay at home, resulting in slower consumption.
The prevention of Xinguan pneumonia requires reducing the gathering of residents, and the off-line consumption of residents becomes food oriented, and the development of epidemic disease has a great inhibition effect on the off-line consumption.
4、 International concerns, causing tighter imports and exports.
In 2019, the trade friction between China and the United States was just stabilizing. In 2020, with the continuous downward pressure of the U.S. - European economy and the intensifying economic game between countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) listed the new epidemic as "public health emergencies of international concern" (PHEIC), and the pressure of China's economic stability was increased by the import and export epidemic prevention and inspection and some commodity restrictions, and the contraction of import and export scale.
5、 Risk avoidance, resulting in insufficient market cash flow
The epidemic impacted the psychological expectation of investors. Although the investment in online industry and medical industry will increase, the investment in other industries will tend to be prudent, and the overall market investment will be tightened. If the epidemic continues to deteriorate, the market loss will be expanded.
2、 Which industries will be affected by the epidemic killer's mace?
The damage to human, capital, trade and psychological expectation caused by the epidemic disease makes the first to bear the short-term pressure on consumption, the second to have downward pressure on import and export affected by domestic and foreign demand, and the third to have tight cash flow impact on production and investment.
3、 Top Ten Industries Influenced by the New Guantou Pneumonia Epidemic
The most affected industries by the new epidemic disease have the following characteristics: first, labor-intensive production and service industries; Second, import and export trade dependent industries; The third is the industry that requires consumers to participate in the field.
1、 Film industry
The whole industry chain has been seriously hit by the online broadcasting of SongSong Song Song, a popular movie for the Spring Festival. It remains to be explored whether the screening mode of "SongMa" will cause the industry model to be shuffled across the cinemas and theaters.
2、 Catering industry
The food and beverage industry has suffered a lot. A large number of restaurant food stocks are taken out for selling at a low price, and the attendants transfer the logistics work. New business forms may appear, but the industry losses are still serious.
3、 Tourism industry
The tourism industry missed the Spring Festival Golden Week. Spring Festival is an important tourism golden week except the "11th Five-Year Plan" and "May Day Plan". It can be predicted from the industrial chain that the relevant medium and small-sized businessmen suffer a lot.
4、 HOTEL INDUSTRY
In 2003, after a large number of hotels with small scale and low industry concentration were eliminated during the SARS period, according to the transmission characteristics of the New Corona pneumonia, the single hotel still had poor risk resistance ability eliminated, the vacancy rate of high-star hotels was high, and the cost could not compensate for the attack.g.
5、 Transport and transportation
The number of trips in the transportation industry is reduced by about 70%. Land, sea, land and shipping under the line are greatly affected, and the online platforms with close interest in transportation such as Ctrip, Where to Go and e-hailing platforms are also affected.
6、 Automobile industry
The automotive industry will be under tremendous pressure. Short-term production is blocked, supply of domestic industry chain and world industry chain is blocked, and it is difficult to carry out marketing of 4S store activities. Short-term decline may be improved in the medium and long term.
7、 Petroleum Industry
Influenced by the epidemic, as the world's largest oil importer and consumer, China's oil demand sharply reduced, which directly led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. As a link in the industry chain of transportation, the oil inventory is constantly rising. If the epidemic situation is not controlled, the oil price is at the risk of falling for a long time.
8、 Construction industry and real estate industry
Construction industry shuts down, real estate sales are suspended, and short-term online sales become the main means, but the role of promotion and diversion remains to be observed. Highly-debhousing enterprises will bear huge capital chain pressure. It is expected that, after the epidemic, if the policies are not loosened in a large area, small and medium-sized housing enterprises will have a huge impact, and large housing enterprises may have the possibility of regional low-price house throwing.
9、 Financial industry
The financial industry is affected, and market hedge will have a huge impact on the financial industry. The financial industry may be damaged in the future due to the increase of the nonperforming rate and the decrease of the trading volume of the securities.
10、 The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries are affected
For poultry breeding in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, on the one hand, the logistics is blocked, resulting in a great increase in feed transportation costs, on the other hand, the slaughter and sales of live birds are restricted, and both production and sales ends are subject to double extrusion.
4、 Top 10 Industries Benefiting from the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic
The rapidly developing industries affected by the New Corona Pneumonia disease have the following characteristics: first, the unmanned, professional and customized consumer industry; The second is the full-process Internet+, intensive and programmed import and export trade industry; Third, focus on content, high quality, infrastructure community coverage and other projects of investment transformation and upgrading industry.
1、 Short videos, games, etc
Online projects such as short videos and games will further activate the whole industry chain, create unprecedented development opportunities, and the industry may burst.
2、 E-commerce (electronic commerce)
The epidemic has caused a significant increase in household services. First, refine the business type of e-commerce, generate the e-commerce platform to meet the market demand and expand the service content; II. Inspire potential customers and relieve high cost investment of customers among e-commerce platforms.
3、 Online education
Online education, knowledge payment and other industries will be booming. Upon the outbreak of the epidemic, the free use of knowledge payment platforms such as KNOWInternet and WIP has triggered a huge response in the society, reflecting the rising demand of the public for online education and knowledge payment programs.g.
4、 Unmanned "service
High-tech industries such as unmanned retail, unmanned catering and unmanned aerial vehicle distribution rise strongly. Since 2016, there has been no disruptive business model. Can we move to a new stage this time?
5、 Global and intra-city logistics
The epidemic situation of Xinguan is sudden, and the surge of logistics business in a short period of time will restrain the price war among logistics enterprises, and the unit price of express delivery is likely to rise. In the long run, if the epidemic continues, labor difficulties will be the biggest impact. In addition, the epidemic situation requires logistics upgrading, which will promote the steady development of global logistics and intra-city logistics, and the expansion and development of door-to-door service platforms and customized services.
6、 Online office software
Epidemic prevention and control requires online office, which will provide a broader market for online office software. Enterprises' online office also puts forward more requirements for software upgrading and development.
7、 Supermarket, supermarket
During the Spring Festival, the sales volume of the head supermarket chain enterprises increased by 10% compared with the same period last year. Delivery to home service provides user requirements for upgrading and expansion of the supermarket.
8、 Last kilometer project
Sudden epidemic, loud speakers in the village and the gatehouse in the community have become the focus of attention. The project of linking the last kilometer to the community and village to help the society conduct grid management, or it will become a huge opportunity for the next development.
9、 Pharmaceutical industry
The relevant medical and pharmaceutical industries return to work in advance to ensure the supply of materials, and only the pharmaceutical stock has been in good trend since the opening. The online consultation and remote medical service of the epidemic, and the "medicine+Internet" business form providing online professional technical support services will coordinate the distribution of social resources such as medical care, or will become the next wind outlet.
10、 Mental Doctor
The demands for private doctors, psychological doctors, etc. continue to expand. Taking Beijing Anding Hospital as an example, a psychological hotline was quickly opened in the epidemic, reflecting the increasing public awareness of psychological regulation and rising demand.
It is too early to quantify the new epidemic situation in the industry. The development of the new epidemic is also uncertain. It is too early to quantify the economic impact of the epidemic. The overall impact on the Chinese economy will depend on the time when the epidemic situation is reversed. The market needs medium and long-term economic control policies.
